Cash flow
What a 92% solar eclipse can teach your business about cash flow
Most cash flow pressure is as predictable as an eclipse once you model it. A rolling forecast with best and worst cases shows the dip early enough to prepare.
By David ElliottBSc FCA, Founder & Managing Partner
On Wednesday 12th August 2026, something remarkable will happen in the sky above the UK. As the sun dips towards the western horizon during early evening, the Moon will slide in front of it and, from most of the country, block out around 90% of its disc. Head to Cornwall or the Isles of Scilly and coverage climbs to nearly 96%. It will be the deepest solar eclipse seen from the UK since 1999, and the closest we’ll get to totality until 2081.
What’s striking isn’t just the spectacle. It’s the certainty. Astronomers can tell you, to the minute, when the eclipse will begin, when it will peak, and when it will end, at any point on the map. In London, first contact happens at roughly 6:17pm, maximum eclipse around 7:12pm, and it’s over by about 8pm. That precision comes from centuries of refined orbital mechanics, modelling the exact, predictable movements of the Earth, Moon and Sun.
Here’s the thing worth borrowing for your business: nobody is trying to stop the eclipse. You can’t. What you can do is prepare for it by knowing exactly where to stand, what equipment to bring, and how to make the most of those few minutes when the light changes and the temperature drops. The eclipse is coming whether you plan for it or not. The outcome you get depends entirely on the preparation you do beforehand.
Your business has its own eclipses
Every SME has predictable events on the horizon, even if they don’t always feel that predictable. A big supplier invoice due the same week as the quarterly VAT payment. The seasonal dip that hits every January. A key client who pays 15 days late or a loan repayment that hits in six months’ time. None of these are surprises if you’re looking for them; they’re as predictable as an eclipse, if you build the model.
That’s what a rolling cash flow forecast does. Rather than reacting to a bank balance that’s suddenly lower than expected, a good 13-week (or ideally 12-month) cash flow forecast lets you see the dip coming weeks or months in advance - its depth, its timing, and how long it will last. Just like eclipse modelling, the quality of the prediction depends on the quality of the inputs: accurate sales pipelines, realistic payment terms, known fixed costs, and a healthy dose of honesty about which invoices might slip.
Modelling the “totality” scenarios
Astronomers don’t just calculate one outcome; they map varying degrees of eclipse across different locations, because the experience in Cornwall isn’t the same as the experience in Knutsford (92% coverage, I believe). Good financial planning works the same way. Scenario modelling with best case, most likely, and worst case cash flow shows you how different combinations of “what if” events impact your business:
- What happens if your two biggest clients both pay 30 days late in the same month?
- What happens if a major cost, like energy or materials, rises 15%?
- What happens if a planned sale falls through?
Running these scenarios in advance means that when reality lands somewhere between “everything’s fine” and “worst case,” you’re not caught off guard. You already know your options.
Preparing for the dip, not just predicting it
Prediction is only half the value. Astronomers spend months telling people how to safely view the eclipse - proper glasses, the right vantage point and, of course, timing your arrival so you don’t miss it! The forecast only matters if it changes what you do beforehand.
The same applies to cash flow. Once you can see a shortfall coming, there’s a genuine window to act:
Build a buffer before you need it
A cash reserve arranged in a calm month is far cheaper and easier than one arranged during a crisis.
Talk to lenders early
An overdraft facility or invoice financing arrangement agreed in advance, “just in case,” is a very different conversation to asking for emergency funding when you’re already short.
Adjust timing, not just totals
Bringing forward an invoice run, negotiating a short payment extension with a supplier, or delaying non-essential spend by a few weeks can smooth a dip without changing the underlying numbers at all.
Communicate
If you know a shortfall is coming, tell your bank and, where appropriate, your key suppliers before it happens, not after.
The takeaway
You can’t move the Moon, and you can’t always control when a client pays or when costs rise. But like an eclipse, most of the pressure points in your business’s cash flow are predictable well in advance if you’re modelling for them properly. The businesses that come through a tight month unscathed are rarely the luckiest; they’re usually the ones that saw it coming.
If you’d like help building a rolling cash flow forecast or stress-testing your business against a few realistic “what if” scenarios, get in touch. We’d rather help you plan for the dip than help you recover from it.
And if you happen to be free on the evening of 12th August, it’s worth stepping outside for a look. Stick around after sunset too as the Perseid meteor shower peaks the same night.
However, predicting the probability of clear skies in the UK - well, that’s a very different challenge!